Overview:
Palau is entering a neutral climate phase following the end of La Niña, with forecasters warning of drier weather and rising temperatures in the coming months. The latest outlook shows a possible shift toward El Niño later this year, raising concerns about reduced rainfall, water supply pressures, and hotter conditions nationwide.
KOROR, Palau (April 2026) — Palau is moving into a neutral climate phase after a short-lived La Niña ended in early April, according to the latest Palau Climate Bulletin. Forecasters say this shift could bring less rain and warmer conditions in the months ahead, with a possible move toward El Niño later this year.
The bulletin explains that the Pacific is now in an “ENSO-neutral” state, meaning it is neither La Niña nor El Niño. However, experts say conditions could gradually change, and an El Niño event — which often brings drier weather to Palau — may develop by mid-2026 and continue through the end of the year.
Rainfall likely to drop in coming months
Recent rainfall has been mixed. January to March saw near-normal rainfall overall, while March alone was wetter than usual at many weather stations.
Looking ahead, May is expected to be drier than normal across Palau, especially in Hatohobei. The trend may continue through July, with Koror, much of Babeldaob, and the southwest islands also likely to see below-normal rainfall.
This means residents could start noticing fewer rainy days and possibly drier conditions affecting water supply, farming, and daily activities.
Temperatures expected to rise
Temperatures are also expected to increase. Recent data shows daytime highs mostly in the 80s to low 90s, with nighttime temperatures in the 70s to low 80s.
From May through July, both daytime and nighttime temperatures are likely to be above normal. This could mean hotter days, warmer nights, and increased discomfort, especially during dry periods.
Other climate drivers remain neutral
Other major climate patterns are not expected to bring significant changes for now.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which can influence rainfall, is currently neutral and is expected to stay that way through at least May. This means it is not likely to increase or reduce rainfall in Palau in the short term.
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a band of clouds and rain near the equator, has been positioned slightly north of its usual location. However, forecasters say it is not expected to have a strong impact on Palau’s weather at this time.
Meanwhile, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), another system that affects cloudiness and rain, is currently over the Indian Ocean. As it moves, it may temporarily reduce cloud cover in parts of the western Pacific and could support the development of El Niño if it strengthens later.
What this means for Palau
In simple terms, Palau is entering a period where:
- Rainfall may decrease, especially from May through July
- Temperatures will likely be warmer than usual
- A shift toward El Niño could bring longer dry conditions later in the year
Officials advise the public to stay aware of changing weather patterns, conserve water where possible, and prepare for hotter and potentially drier months ahead.
