Earth Sciences New Zealand is predicting elevated cyclone activity for parts of the Pacific in the coming cyclone season.
Cyclone season starts 1 November.
In its outlook released on Wednesday morning, developed with contributions from New Zealand’s MetService, the University of Newcastle in Australia, and various Pacific Islands metservices, Earth Sciences said a range of seven to eleven named cyclones could occur in the Southwest Pacific.
For north, central and northeast areas – including Samoa, Tokelau, and parts of Kiribati – there is an elevated risk.
Significant differences are expected between the west and east, with the risk of impacts expected to be higher near and to the east of the International Date Line.
In the East Coral Sea – including New Caledonia and Vanuatu – there is a normal to reduced risk.
For north of the Coral Sea and the west central area of the southwest Pacific, including Fiji and Tonga, near normal activity is forecast.
But Earth Sciences warns that at least four tropical cyclones reaching category 3 or higher may occur anywhere across the region, so all communities should remain prepared.
Principal scientist Andrew Lorrey said there may also be an early start to the season.
He said there are strong indications that the southwest Pacific is likely to see an increase in cyclone activity compared to recent seasons.
“Over the long term, cyclone numbers have been gradually decreasing in the Southwest Pacific, but there can be prominent year-to-year variability,” he said.
“During past strong El Niño events like the one that’s currently unfolding, we’ve typically seen elevated numbers of cyclones across the region, along with more activity to the east of the International Date Line. This is an area that’s usually fairly quiet.”
New Zealand’s risk for the coming season is normal, Lorrey said.
“This year there is the potential that northern and western areas facing the Tasman Sea have more of a chance of experiencing a decaying storm than eastern regions,”
Cyclone season ends in April 2027.
