National Weather Service Guam Warning Coordination meteorologist Landon Aydlett added four to seven tropical cyclones of tropical storm strength or higher are forecast between now and the end of 2026.
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The Mariana Islands could see three to five additional typhoons and up to seven named tropical cyclones before the end of the year as a developing El Niño boosts storm activity across the Western Pacific, according to the US National Weather Service in Guam.
Forecasters say above-normal tropical cyclone activity is expected for Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands as ocean conditions continue shifting toward what could become a strong or even very strong El Niño event.
Speaking during Guam’s Typhoon Preparedness Month proclamation event last week, National Weather Service Guam Warning Coordination meteorologist Landon Aydlett said the outlook calls for three to five additional typhoons passing through the Marianas region.
Aydlett added four to seven tropical cyclones of tropical storm strength or higher are forecast between now and the end of 2026.
He stressed the forecast is not a prediction of direct landfalls, but reflects an increased likelihood of storms affecting the region as El Niño develops.
El Niño years typically shift tropical cyclone formation and tracks eastward, placing the Marianas closer to the heart of storm activity in the western North Pacific, he said.
During the strong El Niño of 2015, eight tropical cyclones passed between Guam and Rota.
Meteorologist Christian Williams said sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific have already reached the threshold for El Niño conditions and forecasts favour a strong to very strong event later this year.
Williams said stronger El Niño events are typically associated with greater typhoon activity near the Marianas and can also bring wetter-than-normal conditions during the early stages of the climate pattern.
The outlook comes less than two months after Super Typhoon Sinlaku caused extensive damage across Saipan and Tinian.
Officials used the preparedness event to urge residents to maintain emergency plans and supplies ahead of the peak typhoon season, which runs from July through October.
The National Weather Service said the western North Pacific has already recorded six tropical cyclones this year, including Super Typhoon Sinlaku and Typhoon Hagupit, which affected parts of Micronesia and the Marianas.
