Overview:
Meteorologists are warning that the 2026 typhoon season could bring above-average storm activity across Micronesia, with Palau forecast to experience two to four named tropical storms and up to two typhoons. Officials are urging residents to stay prepared year-round as El Niño conditions increase the likelihood of stronger storms developing across the region.
KOROR, Palau — Tropical cyclone activity across the western North Pacific is expected to increase during the remainder of 2026, but Palau is likely to experience near-normal to below-normal storm activity compared with other parts of Micronesia, according to a new outlook issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service.
The June 5 outlook forecasts above-normal tropical cyclone activity for much of the United States-affiliated Pacific Islands, including the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. However, forecasters expect the Republic of Palau to see normal to below-normal activity through the rest of the year.
Meteorologists attribute the forecast to the anticipated development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño typically shifts tropical cyclone development farther east, increasing storm activity across central and eastern Micronesia while reducing the number of storms forming near Palau.
For residents of Palau, the outlook suggests that fewer tropical storms and typhoons are likely to affect the country directly compared with neighboring parts of Micronesia. Many storms are expected to track farther north of Palau as they develop and move across the region.
However, weather officials emphasized that a lower number of storms does not eliminate the risk of severe weather.
“It only takes one” storm to cause significant damage, forecasters noted, warning that even a single tropical cyclone can bring destructive winds, flooding rains, coastal inundation and dangerous sea conditions.
The eastward shift in storm development may also allow tropical cyclones more time over warm ocean waters, increasing the likelihood that some will intensify into major typhoons. Major typhoons are classified as Category 3, 4 or 5 storms and could pose a greater threat to the Mariana Islands and western Micronesia if their tracks bring them near populated areas.
For the average resident, the forecast means Palau may experience fewer storm threats than some neighboring islands, but preparedness remains essential. Residents are encouraged to maintain emergency supplies, review family preparedness plans and stay informed of weather updates throughout the year.
Unlike the Atlantic Ocean, where hurricanes occur during a defined season, tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific can form at any time of year. While activity typically reaches its highest levels between September and November, storms have occurred during every month of the year.
The NOAA outlook does not predict how many storms will make landfall on specific islands. Instead, it provides a broad assessment of overall tropical cyclone activity and the likelihood of significant impacts from passing systems.
Officials continue to urge residents, visitors and mariners across Micronesia to remain prepared for tropical cyclones year-round and to monitor forecasts and advisories as weather conditions evolve during the coming months.
