‘The issue doesn’t just stop’: Bougainville question shapes as a long game

Bougainvilleans may have to wait even longer than expected on whether Papua New Guinea’s parliament will approve their vote for independence.

But in a message from a West Papuan living in PNG, Bougainvilleans are being urged to stay patient and trust the process – because unlike West Papuans, they actually have a genuine process in play.

The result of Bougainville’s 2019 referendum – in which 97.7 percent of Bougainvilleans voted for independence – was finally tabled in PNG’s parliament last month.

The parliament has the final say on whether to ratify Bougainville’s overwhelming vote for independence.

The date for parliament’s decision on the matter is set to be announced next month, but all signs point to a longer-term process for Bougainville’s future.

Given that it took almost seven years just for the result to formally make it to the national parliament, the patience of Bougainvilleans has been remarkable.

But as noted by the regional member for Bougainville in the parliament, Peter Tsiamalili Jr, the tabling of the result is not the end of the process.

“It marks the beginning of Parliament’s direct and solemn consideration of the question placed before it by the people of Bougainville,” he said, adding that constant dialogue was the way forward, no matter what gets decided in the short term.

“This matter must never be reduced to partisan politics. It must not become a contest between government and the opposition, nor should it become a source of division between Bougainville and the rest of Papua New Guinea.”

While it remains unlikely at this time that a majority of PNG’s MPs would vote to grant Bougainville independence, Prime Minister James Marape and others have indicated that a longer timeframe could come into play.

They suggest PNG wouldn’t necessarily give a final answer of yes or no to Bougainville in the short term, but rather push the decision back over a period of years, possibly a decade or so, to give Bougainville time to build its economy and services in order to be able to stand on its own feet, before the decision is revisited.

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A complicating factor is that the Autonomous Bougainville Government, through its president Ishmael Toroama, has said Bougainville’s plan is to declare independence in 2030, no matter how PNG’s parliament votes.

But the MP for Sinasina Yonggomugl, Kerenga Kua, noted that the Burnham Accord, signed in New Zealand last year by both PNG and Bougainville, saw both parties agree to be bound by any decision of parliament. They also agreed to maintain ongoing dialogue.

“So that is an assurance, some level of comfort to all of us to know that firstly, people should not react unilaterally to any outcomes. People should not resort to violence. We should all cooperate to maintain peace, harmony, good order, good governance, and then we talk. We sit down, and we talk about what we will do going forward.”

Speaking to RNZ Pacific, Kua cited a poem read by the MP for Central Bougainville Timothy Masiu in July in parliament, likening the Bougainville issue to the tide – it comes today, then it comes tomorrow, and then the day after – the issue does not just stop.

“So it is within his contemplation as a leader of Bougainville that we might not be able to resolve it successfully to the satisfaction of the people of Bougainville.

“However, we must not give up hope. We keep coming back. We keep talking about it. Keep coming back, refresh the issues, recharge the issues, keep talking about it until hopefully one day it gets resolved.”

Some commentators have noted the parallels between Bougainvilleans’ long quest for independence and that of West Papuans.

But a West Papuan community leader who lives in PNG, Frank Makanuey, said the parallels are limited – he argued that while Bougainville has standing to negotiate a “secessionist” outcome, under Indonesian rule West Papuans lack standing due to failures to apply international law, as evidenced by the dubious 1969 Act of Free Choice.

“The Bougainville leadership must be proud that they have standing to negotiate independence from a secessionist point of view, and I do not have that as a West Papuan person. I do not have standing at all,” Makanuey said.

“The PNG government has come this far to resolve the Bougainvillean issue. It has come like halfway. It’s prepared to go halfway, in my opinion. Just follow the process, trust the process. You’ll get your independence eventually.”

Makanuey warned that threats, unilateral timelines and declarations from Bougainville’s leadership are creating resentment among Papua New Guinea politicians.

“But (Bougainille) must understand that we need to change the constitution for them to be able to (change their political status),” he told RNZ Pacific.

“I think they also have to understand international law in this regard. This is a secessionist movement, and it’s not an outright independence that’s normally accorded under the international law where it says all peoples have the right to self-determination.

“This isn’t about that. This is about a group of people wanting to break away from a government they agreed to in the first place, to be part of in the first place.”

In the meantime, Bougainville’s government faces sizeable challenges, not just in keeping the expectations of its people grounded in reality, but also in maintaining peace.

A violent attack on a mining company at Panguna just over a week ago came as a setback after many years of peace and suggests that frustrations are growing over the future of Bougainville.